Econometric Models of Default Prediction of Russian Banks

The paper analyzes the features of building and improving the quality of econometric models of Default Prediction of Russian banks with comparison of their various modifications. Modeling is carried out with the help of a standard logistic regression, with evaluation of the influence of various factors on the subject of research. The aim of the work is to analyze previous default models and create own adequate model, which can predict bank defaults. The object of the study is the banking system of the Russian Federation. The factors influencing the probability of the Default are the subject of the study. The paper includes an introduction, three chapters and final conclusion. The conclusion is devoted to the analysis of the obtained results and the predictive power of the model. Also, the final results are compared with the results of previous studies on the given topic. The volume of master's work is 80 pages, on which 17 figures and 9 tables are placed.