Testing the Russian Foreign Exchange Market on Weak-form Efficiency

Student: Stepanova Emiliya

Faculty: International College of Economics and Finance

Educational Programme: Double degree programme in Economics of the NRU HSE and the University of London (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2017

This paper studies weak-form efficiency of the Russian Foreign exchange market from 01/01/2010 to 01/01/2017, by conducting Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philip-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests to examine for the unit root. The results, which were obtained, using ADF and KPSS tests, state that all currencies follow random walk process. While using PP test, it was revealed that only Chinese Yuan does not follow random walk, but all other currencies do. Therefore, it can be said it is impossible to predict the value of the exchange rate, using its past values. This result does not contradict the efficient market hypothesis of the weak-form.

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