Prediction of Communicative Effects and Box-Office Receipts for Russia

Student: Davydov Roman

Supervisor: Nadezhda Astakhova

Educational Programme: Applied Methods of Social Analysis of Markets (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2018

In this paper we analyze approaches of researchers in the field of box office forecasting, the empirical database was gathered from popular and professional online-sources about film distribution using automation methods, then the nature and type of ties of factors are thoretically and statistically described (the popularity of the film, the popularity of actors and directors, the communicative effect of the franchise, the genre, age restrictions, distributors, etc.) with box-office collections of films in the Russian box office. The regression model of box-office with dummy-variables and logarithmic variables was tested, its quality was adjusted, results were interpreted and substantive conclusions were given.

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