Determinants of Development of Educational Choices in Higher Education

Abstract: This study assesses the impact of individual factors (socio-economic, cultural and individual) on the choice of educational trajectory of schoolchildren in the 9th and 11th grades, as well as the choice of a selective university. The data of the Panel study "Trajectories in Education and Profession" of the TROP for 2011-2017 are used. The estimated sample is about 3359 respondents. Logistic regressions are used as a methodological basis for the study. Two groups of probabilistic models are modeled. For the first group of models the division between academic track is used – Continuation of training (code "1") and non-academic track (code "0"-otherwise). Models of the first group are built separately for selection at the end of the 9th class ("1"-Transition to the 10th class; "0" – otherwise) and at the end of the 11th class ("1"-admission to the university; "0"-otherwise). For the second group of models the division between selective university (code "1") and non-selective university (code "0") is used. Independent variables are: region of residence, gender, visit of specialized schools, sections, circles, parents ' education, family income, number of books at home, literature grades, type of school and type of education in university (paid/budget basis). As a result, it was revealed that the probability of choosing an academic track of training is positively influenced by factors of mother's education, family income, number of books at home, literature grades, type of school (Gymnasium/Lyceum or profile school). The probability of choosing a selective university is positively influenced by the factors of the type of education in the university, the region of residence, visiting the hobby circle, parent education, family income, literature assessment. The factor of visiting the sports section is negatively affected. Keywords: educational trajectory, academic track training, educational choice, socio-economic inequality, logistic regression.