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  • Analysis of Mathematical Models of Safety with Limited Information about the Reliability of the Protection System

Analysis of Mathematical Models of Safety with Limited Information about the Reliability of the Protection System

Student: Kopylov Mikhail

Supervisor: Victor Kashtanov

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2019

Security is an important aspect of human activity. The importance of the problem requires the development of mathematical models that can make a quantitative assessment of safety. In contrast to reliability, security, from a mathematical point of view is not so well studied. In this paper, we study the security model, which provides for the presence of attacks on the system, recovery work of two types, the absence of indication of failures. The problem of choosing the optimal control strategy to maximize the mathematical expectation of the time before the disaster is considered. With the help of controlled semi-Markov processes with disasters, the safety characteristics of the system are estimated. There examines the situation in the case of exponential distribution function of failure-free operation of the system. The model of functioning of system at incomplete information on characteristics of reliability is considered. Python programming language tools are used to calculate optimal values.

Full text (added May 26, 2019)

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