Statistical Analysis and Modelling of the Air Transport Market in Russia

Civil aviation is one of the largest and most important components of the transport sector, as well as a significant element of the country's social infrastructure. The presence of transport communication is an integral component of the successful development of any state, capable of assessing the conditions of economic growth. Recently, in view of the events taking place in the world, the dynamics of the development of the air transportation market is ambiguous, which confirms the relevance of this final qualification work. The object of this study is the passenger and cargo air transportation market. The subject is models that can provide a consistent assessment of the activities of civil aviation, as well as indicators used to build these models. The main goal of the final qualification work is to conduct a statistical analysis of the market and simulate air transportation in Russia. The regression model used to study the factors revealed regressors that most strongly affect the studied variable. Based on the analysis of this model, it was concluded that GDP has the strongest effect on the indicator under study. Next, the number of passengers carried was simulated using the SARIMA model and a meaningful forecast was built for 36 months in advance. The most important result of the study conducted in this final qualification work is that the constructed models: both a regression and an autoregressive model with a seasonal component, are adequate and suitable for further use. It was also possible to build a forecast for several years ahead and to trace the tendency to reduce the number of passengers carried in the near future, ceteris paribus. This dynamics indicates the possible problems on the Russian air transportation market and suggests that the regulator needs to intervene in order to solve problems existing in this area. Thus, it is possible to expand this topic in the future by studying the influence of the state on the air transportation market.