A Comprehensive Model for Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy of Foreign and Domestic Enterprises of Various Industry Affiliations

This research considers the possibility of constructing a comprehensive model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises. The aim of this paper is to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy of Russian and European enterprises of various industry sectors, taking into account changes in the dynamics of financial and non-financial indicators. The research is based on data from 3828 Russian enterprises and 1694 European enterprises obtained from Ruslana and Amadeus databases. In this research are considered various performance indicators of enterprises, 17 financial variables and 5 non-financial indicators, as well as 18 dynamic indicators presented in the form of the ratio of the variable value of the current period to the previous one. There are built different models for predicting bankruptcy probability for enterprises in Russia and Europe, as well as a general model that takes into account country affiliation using two methods: logistic regression and decision trees.