Determinants and Regional Differentiation of Fertility in the Russian Federation Taking into Account Measures of Pronatalistic Policies

Studying the trends in the birth rate is a multilateral process, since the birth rate simultaneously performs many functions: it is a component of demographic growth and a component of the demographic forecast, acts as an essential element in the life cycle and life path of an individual, household and family, sets the direction of social and demographic policy, closely interconnected with the functioning of the healthcare system and social security, and is also influenced by many factors, such as the structure and age composition of the population, socio-economic factors, etc. Recent trends show that the situation in the country regarding fertility is becoming less and less favorable. So, in 2017, for the first time since the start of the implementation of measures of pronatalistic policies in all federal districts, as well as in almost all regions of the Russian Federation, a significant decrease in the birth rate was recorded. Whereas the declining birth rate for first births took shape in most regions over the previous several years, then for second births it gained a dominant role in 2017, retaining in 2018. In this regard, and also taking into account the fact that pro-natalist policies 2007 mainly aimed at stimulating second and subsequent births, the question arises of the effectiveness and relevance of the measures implemented. In addition, since 2011, more attention has been paid to regional specifics in the development of measures to stimulate fertility and support for families with children. Based on this, it seems rational to study the regional differentiation of the birth rate, as well as potential determinants, which can affect it to varying degrees. The purpose of the work is to analyze the general patterns of fertility in the Russian Federation, to identify the main trends in regional differentiation, taking into account the potential determinants of fertility, as well as measures of pronatalistic policies. During the study, the main indicators of fertility in the dynamics in 2000 - 2018 were analyzed in a regional context, indicators are calculated that reflect the structure and age composition of the population, causing significant changes in the birth rate, typological groups of regions are identified through cluster analysis, depending on the state of potential determinants of fertility, which, in turn, were selected as indicators of the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025. At the end of the work, the relevance of measures of pronatalistic policy by the population were analyzed.