Fertility in Russia’s Regions at the Municipal Level (2011-2019)

Insufficient data until recently have determined the lack of studies considering population indicators for Russia’s small areas. The article focuses on the analysis of the birth rate in 2304 municipal level areas of Russia’s regions. The study is based on the Rosstat municipal data on the number of women of reproductive age by five-year groups and the number of births. To eliminate the influence of the age structure, which is especially evident when operating on the local level, standardised fertility rates were calculated (average for 2017–2019). The calculations were based on the method of indirect standardization with Russia’s population chosen as a standard. The variation in birth rates is decreasing both at the regional and municipal level due to the continuing decline in the fertility of the areas where its level is still high. Moreover, the coefficient of generalization is growing: the role of local factors is increasing. When analyzing spatial trends in the number of births, it was identified that about half of the increase in the concentration of births in regional centres was provided by changes in the law regulating birth registration. The ratio of the general and standardised birth rates was intended to assess the contribution of the age structure of women to fertility level. Migration appears to be the main factor in the fertility differentiation in modern Russia for the largest cities. The maximum underestimation of the birth rate occurs in small rural municipalities in the Russian North and the Volga region. Low income leading to a greater response to pro-natalist government policies together with traditional employment in the agricultural sector can determine a high birth rate in the areas mentioned above. Differences in the standardised TFR at the municipal level make it possible to estimate the concentration of high fertility. Only 10.6% of Russia’s population lives in territories where the TFR is higher than the replacement fertility level (2.15). Demographic modernization has left almost no significant areas (in terms of population amount) with high fertility rates, even in underdeveloped regions.