By Chance or Design? The Role of China in Autocratic Diffusion in the Post-Cold War Era

The end of the third wave of democratisation and the subsequent reversal of several newborn regimes marked the start of a new era. The scholars of today refer to this long-standing trend as the third wave of autocratisation, the process opposite to what Samuel Huntington described in his writings. This wave, having been gaining momentum since the 1990s, has arguably approached its climax by the year 2024. While the ‘reverse wave’ concept of Huntington’s partially accounts for the spread of authoritarianism in the post-Cold War era, it does not suffice it, for now, global democracy rates suggest that even the most consolidated and powerful regimes are experiencing a backslide. Of all possible explanations, one of the most viable is the so-called demonstration effect, as well as autocratic spillover from authoritarian states. Namely, one of the most powerful players in today’s international arena, the People’s Republic of China, is believed to contribute a considerable part to the current trend of autocratisation. Its political and economic potential is apparently capable of challenging the superiority of the liberal-democratic order that has been a global pivot for decades. A question that automatically arises, then, is the following: is China merely conducting its national policy and through its successes raising appeal for the so-called Chinese Model or is it a thought-through, very deliberate strategy aimed at shifting the balance in favour of authoritarianism among its neighbours and beyond? In other words, is it a side effect or a carefully considered agenda for ‘authoritarian international’? This is what I am hoping to find out. Keywords: authoritarianism, diffusion, autocratisation, China, backslide, wave