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ResearcherID: AAX-1558-2020
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A. Y. Melville
A. Korotayev
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Leonid Issaev

  • Member of the HSE Academic Council
  • Leonid Issaev has been at HSE University since 2009.

Education, Degrees and Academic Titles

  • 2023
    Associate Professor
  • 2014

    Candidate of Sciences* (PhD) in Political Problems of International Relations, Global and Regional Development
    Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences
    Thesis Title: Political Crisis in Arab Countries: Experience of the Evaluation and Typology

  • 2012

    Master's in Political Science
    Russian State University for the Humanities, History, Political Science and Law

  • 2010

    Master's in Political Science
    Cairo University, Economics and Political Science

  • 2008

    HSE University

* Candidate of Sciences
According to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) 2011, Candidate of Sciences belongs to ISCED level 8 - "doctoral or equivalent", together with PhD, DPhil, D.Lit, D.Sc, LL.D, Doctorate or similar. Candidate of Sciences allows its holders to reach the level of the Associate Professor.

Awards and Accomplishments

Young Faculty Support Programme (Group of Young Academic Professionals)
Category "New Lecturers" (2014-2015)
Category "Future Lecturers" (2013)


Coordination of research and expert analysis of the laboratory.

Preparation of scientific and analytical materials on research profile.

Courses (2023/2024)

Courses (2022/2023)

Courses (2021/2022)

* На странице упоминается ИГИЛ. ИГИЛ - запрещенная на территории РФ организация.


  • 2018
    Strategies for State building in Syria: a discussion on centralization/decentralization (Montreux). Presentation: What centralization/decentralization formula fits Syria?
  • Russian foreign policy in the Middle East: Peacemaking or Conflict Exacerbating? (Doha). Presentation: Yemen: Is there a role for Russia?
  • Ядерное соглашение с Ираном и его влияние на ближневосточные конфликты (Москва). Presentation: Влияние ядерного соглашения на ситуацию на Ближнем Востоке

Dissertation for a degree of Doctor of Science


* На странице упоминается ИГИЛ. ИГИЛ - запрещенная на территории РФ организация.

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Leonid Issaev. What is After Russia's Military Withdrawal From Syria? // Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, February 5, 2018 

 English (PDF, 1,42 Мб)

 Arabic (PDF, 571 Кб

Leonid Issaev. The Kurdish Issue in the History and Policy of Russia // Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, August 28, 2018.

 Arabic (PDF, 1,07 Мб)


Al Jazeera Network

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. Iraqi Kurdistan: Playing the Independence Game // Al Jazeera, May 1, 2017

Leonid Issaev. Russia and the GCC Crisis // Al Jazeera, June 13, 2017

Leonid Issaev. Russia Is at a Dead-end in Syria // Al Jazeera, June 25, 2017

Leonid Issaev & Nikolay Kozhanov. The Russian-Saudi Rapprochement and Iran // Al Jazeera, August 24, 2017

Leonid Issaev. Decoding King Salman's Visit to Moscow // Al Jazeera, October 4, 2017

Leonid Issaev. Is Russia Afraid of Losing Syria? // Al Jazeera, November 29, 2017

Leonid Issaev. Why is Russia Helping Turkey in Afrin? // Al Jazeera, January 29, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Can Russia, Iran and Turkey agree on a roadmap for Syria? // Al Jazeera, April 5, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Why Russia did not respond to the US strikes on Syria // Al Jazeera, April 15, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Is Turkey really looking for alternatives to the West? // Al Jazeera, August 17, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Will Russia force Iran out of Syria? // Al Jazeera, August 29, 2018

Leonid Issaev. What does Russia want in northwest Syria? // Al Jazeera, September 19, 2018

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. Decentralisation in Syria: a Lesser Evil // Al Jazeera, October 13, 2018

Leonid Issaev & Nikolay Kozhanov. Russian Influence in the Gulf Has its Limits // Al Jazeera, April 5, 2019

Leonid Issaev & Nikolay Kozhanov. Will Russia back US' maximum pressure on Iran? // Al Jazeera, June 13, 2019

Foreign Policy

Ibrahim Fraihat & Leonid Issaev. Russia Doesn’t Solve Conflicts, It Silences Them // Foreign Policy, June 12, 2018

Al Sharq Forum

Leonid Issaev. Russia And Egypt: Opportunities In Bilateral Relations & The Limits Of Cooperation // Al Sharq Forum, January 26, 2017 

 English (PDF, 2,09 Мб)

Leonid Issaev & Serafim Yuriev. The Christian Dimension of Russia’s Middle East Policy // Al Sharq Forum, March 2, 2017 

 English (PDF, 382 Кб)

 Türkçe (PDF, 382 Кб)

Leonid Issaev. Can Russia Reach a Consensus on Syria with Trump? // Al Sharq Forum, June 13, 2017 

 English (PDF, 361 Кб)

Leonid Issaev. Why did Putin visit Egypt? // Al Sharq Forum, January 3, 2018

Leonid Issaev. What was the Sochi Congress for? // Al Sharq Forum, February 14, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Yemen: Unfinished Revolution // Al Sharq Forum, October 1, 2018

 Yemen (PDF, 2,16 Мб)

 Türkçe (PDF, 2,19 Мб)

Leonid Issaev. Challenge Dialogue: What Links Russia and Saudi Arabia // Al Sharq Forum, October 25, 2018 

 English (PDF, 345 Кб)

 Türkçe (PDF, 353 Кб)

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. Idlib, Syrian Decentralization and U.S. Withdrawal // Al Sharq Forum, March 12, 2019 

 English (PDF, 711 Кб)

 Türkçe (PDF, 574 Кб)

 عربي (PDF, 679 Кб)

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. “Frozen” Federalism: Territorial Remake and Civil War in Yemen // Al Sharq Forum, November 5, 2020

English (PDF, 1,03 Мб)

Leonid Issaev. Russia’s “Return” to the Middle East and the Arab Uprisings // Al Sharq Forum, February 17, 2021.

English (PDF, 828 Кб)

Turkish (PDF, 796 Кб)

Arabic (PDF, 895 Кб)

Leonid Issaev. Russia and the Gulf: The Revamping of Diplomacy // Al Sharq Forum, March 26, 2021.

English (PDF, 1,33 Мб)

Turkish (PDF, 1,37 Мб)

Middle East Eye

Leonid Issaev & Yuri Barmin. Why the Gulf Crisis Caught Moscow Off Guard // Middle East Eye, July 11, 2017

Al Sharq Al Awsat

Leonid Issaev & Nikolay Kozhanov. Russia's Results in Syria... The Success in War Is Not Equal to Victory // Al Sharq Al Awsat, January 4, 2018

Leonid Issaev & Alisa Shishkina. Why Syrian Refugees Are Not Welcome in Russia // Al Sharq Al Awsat, February 3, 2018

Leonid Issaev & Kirill Semyonov. The Secret of the Failure of the "De-escalation Zones" in Syria // Al Sharq Al Awsat, May 9, 2018

Leonid Issaev & Nikolay Kozhanov. Why Israel Should Not Be Accused in Russian Aircraft Crash // Al Sharq Al Awsat, October 16, 2018

Leonid Issaev. Idlib, and Decentralization of Syria // l Sharq Al Awsat, December 28, 2018

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Леонид Исаев. Зачем в Сирии провели парламентские выборы? // Московский центр Карнеги, 18 апреля 2016

Леонид Исаев, Андрей Коротаев. Анатомия сирийской оппозиции. Кто они и чего требуют на переговорах // Московский центр Карнеги, 27 июня 2016

Леонид Исаев. Ливийская мозаика: как справиться со вторым ИГИЛ // Московский центр Карнеги, 17 августа 2016

Леонид Исаев. Что мешает договоренностям России и США по Сирии // Московский центр Карнеги, 27 сентября 2016

Леонид Исаев, Серафим Юрьев. В заложниках режима. Что думают в Сирии о России и перспективах конфликта // Московский центр Карнеги, 22 ноября 2016

Леонид Исаев, Андрей Коротаев. Забыть о Сирии. Почему Катар заинтересовался "Роснефтью" // Московский центр Карнеги, 20 декабря 2016

Леонид Исаев. Зачем Россия написала конституцию для Сирии // Московский центр Карнеги, 15 февраля 2017

Леонид Исаев, Николай Кожанов. После химии и ракет. Как меняются позиции России и США по Сирии // Московский центр Карнеги, 2 мая 2017

Леонид Исаев, Антон Мардасов. Штурм Мосула: возможен ли перелом в войне с ИГ // Московский центр Карнеги, 5 июня 2017

Al-Araby Al-Jadeed

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. Bouteflika and Putin... Algerian Lessons for Russia // Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, March 30, 2019

Geneva Center for Security Policy

Leonid Issaev & Hamidreza Azizi. Russian and Iranian Economic Interests In Syria // GCSP, February 2019

English (PDF, 644 Кб)

Russian (PDF, 696 Кб)

Leonid Issaev & Andrey Zakharov. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies // GCSP, June 2020

English (PDF, 214 Кб)

Arabic (PDF, 268 Кб)

Russian (PDF, 331 Кб)

Timetable for today

Full timetable

The staff of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis of the Faculty of Social Sciences took part in the BRICS Academic Forum

Leonid Issaev and Andrey Zakharov took part in the BRICS Academic Forum, which was held in Moscow from 22 to 24 May. The main goal of the forum was to develop academic exchanges, strengthen dialogue between the governments and expert community of the BRICS countries, and develop recommendations for the heads of state. 

A delegation from the Ethiopian Institute of Policy Studies visited the Faculty of Social Sciences.  

On 23 June, the Faculty of Social Sciences hosted a round table ‘Federalism in Russia and Ethiopia: Origins, Development and Prospects’ with the participation of scholars from the Ethiopian Policy Studies Institute. The Ethiopian delegation was led by Professor Petros Beyene, Director of the Institute. He shared his experience of working in Ethiopia's Transitional Government in the early 1990s, which drafted the country's current constitution, which provides for a transition to a federal model. On the FSN side, First Deputy Dean Mikhail Mironyuk took part in the roundtable, noting the stabilising role of federalism in Russia in recent years. 

Keeping Dialogue Open with Africa: Rectors of Regional Universities Visit HSE

At the end of April 2024, HSE University hosted an international conference ‘Export of Russian Education to Africa: Challenges and Opportunities.’ The event was attended by leaders of universities from Mali, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Niger, and Guinea. Together with their Russian counterparts from government bodies, scientific and higher educational institutions, they outlined paths for the development of humanitarian relations and agreed on possible cooperation in the face of a changing world order.

The book 'Terrorism and Political Contention. New Perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel Region' has been published by Springer

The director and deputy director of CSRA Andrey V. Korotaev and Leonid M. Issaev, as well as Janos Besenyo from the University of Obuda (Hungary). The work clearly shows the organizational forms of terrorism in the MENA region and the Sahel. The authors reveal the motives and influence of big powers and external actors on the situation in this part of the globe.

The CSRA has received two grants of the Russian Science Foundation!

The Russian Science Foundation announced the results of the competition, in which teams from the National Research University Higher School of Economics participated. In the field of humanities and social sciences, 8 applications were approved, 2 of which were submitted by the CSRA.

Researchers from the CSRA spoke at an international conference in Tanzania

On March 1-3, the scholars of the Center for the Study of Stability and Risks Analysis (CSRA) and Saint-Petersburg School of Social Sciences HSE University took part in the international academic conference "The Place of Africa in the World: The Past and the Present" which was held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, at the Russian Center for Science and Culture. This conference was devoted to a wide range of research topics and brought together experts from various fields. Beside scholars from Russia and Tanzania, researchers from India, South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria and Holland presented their papers. The conference drew great attention of the Tanzanian academic community.

Leonid Issaev, the Deputy Director of the CSRA, took part in discussion about the current situation in Gaza

A delegation consisting of  Issaev Leonid, Vice Director of the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis , and  Prof. Andrei Zakharov of HSE University of Russia  visited the Policy Studies Institute (PSI) on October 10, 2023.

HSE Researchers Undertake Unique Scientific Expedition to West Africa

Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Social Sciences will study social processes in African countries, the issues and features of the continent’s demographic development, and problems related to the causes of separatism and decentralisation in particular African states during a multi-day scientific expedition that will be launched in June 2023.

The brochure about the Center has been published!

The brochure contains basic information about the CSRA: history of origin, areas of activity, key achievements, publications, information about cooperation with educational programs, geography of expeditions and foreign partners.The brochure is of interest to both the HSE community and a wider audience.

Scholars of CSRA took part in the plenary session 'Africa in a Changing World'

The session was held on the basis on Yasin (April) Conference organized by HSE University annually.
During the session the speakers talked a lot about the challenges Africa is facing in the 21st century, as well as the opportunities that appear for this continent in a changing geopolitical context. The prospects for cooperation between Russia and African states were discussed in particular. 

Leonid Issaev took part in the 14th Al Jazeera Forum in Qatar

On March 11-12, 2023, the Al Jazeera Forum was held in Doha. The Al Jazeera Research Center organises the Forum annually. As a rule, well-known scientists and political figures from all over the world act as speakers of the event. The opening of the forum was attended by Sheikh Hamad Al Thani, the Chairman of the Directoral Board of Al Jazeera, and Majid Al Ansari, the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar and the adviser to the Prime Minister.

The article on the repatriation of Syrian Circassians to the North Caucasus has been published in Europe-Asia Studies journal

An electronic version of the article "A Troubled Return to the Homeland: Syrian Circassians in Southern Russia" has been published on the Europe-Asia Studies journal website. The article covers issues related to the migration of Syrian Circassians (Adyghe) to the Russian regions of the North Caucasus. With the outbreak of conflict in Syria, hundreds of Syrian Circassians decided to move to the Caucasus, where their ancestors lived. Since the Caucasus is perceived by the Syrian Circassians as their historical homeland, they believe that this is not just migration, but repatriation. However, the institutionalization of repatriation took a long time, since there was a risk that supporters of Daesh (the terrorist organization is banned in the Russian Federation) could ifiltrate to Russia.

The article 'Perceptions of Russia's Return to Africa: Perspectives from West Africa' is published

The South African Journal of International Relations (SAJIA) has published an article by laboratory scholars Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina and Yakov Liokumovich entitled 'Perceptions of Russia's 'return' to Africa: Views from West Africa'. The article is included into the special issue covering the Russia's 'return' to Africa.

The book “New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region. A comparative Perspective" is published

The Springer has published a new book edited by laboratory staff members Andrey Korotaev and Leonid Issaev, “New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region. A comparative Perspective". The book was written within the framework of a five-year project of the Russian Science Foundation "Quantitative analysis and forecasting of the risks of socio-political destabilization in the countries of the Afroasian macrozone of instability" and offers a comparative look at the new wave of revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa.

The delegation of the Higher School of Economics visited the Republic of Tatarstan to study the regional experience in Islamic education development.

Leonid Issaev, Alisa Shishkina, Yevgeny Ivanov, and Yegor Fain, scholars of the Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization (HSE University) stayed in Tatarstan from 10 to 14 July 2022 to investigate the approach to Islamic education in the Republic.

Islamic education in Ingushetia: report on the expedition of the Laboratory within the "Rediscovering Russia again" project

From May 14 to May 21, 2022, the Laboratory staff and HSE students conducted an expedition in the Republic of Ingushetia.The activities of Islamic universities in Russian regions have been the focus of attention of the Laboratory staff for several years. A successful expedition to Dagestan in 2019 uncovered a great potential in this direction, but the COVID-19 pandemic did not allow field research. Finally, expedition opportunities have opened up again for HSE staff and students. This time we went to Ingushetia, one of the few regions where monoethnic nature of society is combined with the dominance of Islam. Our Laboratory became the first HSE unit to organize an expedition to Ingushetia, thereby opening up this region from a new perspective.

The international workshop in Istanbul

The laboratory's scholars Leonid Issaev and Evgeny Ivanov took part in the international workshop "Regionalism in the South Caucasus", which was held in Istanbul on the basis of the Institut français d'etudes anatoliennes (IFEA). The workshop was attended by researchers from Russia, Turkey, Iran, France, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

The book about revolutions in the 21st century has been published!

Springer published the book "Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century". The Lab's leading research fellows A.V. Korotaev and L.E. Grinin contributed as co-editors of J. Goldstone, one of the most famous researchers of revolutionary processes in modern political science.

Presentation of the laboratory and its projects

On March 16, a meeting of the Lab's staff with students of the master's programs "Politics. Economics. Philosophy", "Applied Political Science" and "Russian Studies" was held.

Expedition to Tanzania

From February 27 to March 7, Laboratory staff Leonid Isaev, Alice Shishkin and Yakov Lokumovich visited Tanzania.

The journal "Asia and Today" published an article by the staff of our laboratory on Islamic education in Russia

The publication was based on the results of the expedition to Dagestan, organized by the laboratory, with the support of the HSE project "Discovering Russia again".

The third issue of The Ideology and Politics Journal "Social and Political Transformations in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region" has been published (editors Leonid Isaev and Ilya Kusa)

The special issue “Social and Political Transformations in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region” of the Ideology and Politics Journal was initiated to further research on the transformations in the MENA region. This issue presents interdisciplinary research that allows readers to look at the processes of socio-political development of the region from a different angle.

Springer publishing house (series: Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region) published a book by Leonid Issaev and Andrey Zakharov "Federalism in the Middle East. State Reconstruction Projects and the Arab Spring"

Egypt: the post-crisis revival

The Laboratory's researchers Leonid M. Issaev and Alisa R. Shishkina visited Cairo, Egypt. The trip was organized as a part of the project "Analysis and Modeling of African Development in the Context of Russia's Foreign Policy Interests". The visit lasted from 6th to 12th, November.