Денежно-кредитная нестабильность в странах с формирующимся рынкомMonetary Instability in Emerging Market Economies

Monetary instability is a persistent concern for emerging market economies, especially due to their vulnerability to external financial shocks. These shocks often reveal structural weaknesses in how these economies are positioned within the global financial system. This dissertation examines two important sources of such instability: changes in U.S. interest rates and uncertainty in U.S. economic policy. It first investigates the effects of these external factors on macroeconomic outcomes in emerging markets. The analysis then turns to the domestic level, using India as a case study to examine how money demand can be forecast more accurately. A panel structural VAR is used to study the effects of U.S. interest rate shocks, while a GMM-based panel VAR examines the impact of U.S. economic policy uncertainty. The results indicate that both higher interest rates and greater policy uncertainty in the U.S. are associated with exchange rate depreciation, rising inflation, and tighter financial conditions in emerging markets. In the case of India, the dissertation compares several machine learning models for forecasting money demand and finds that methods like LSTM and LASSO perform particularly well. These findings highlight distinct sources of monetary instability and offer practical insights that may be useful for both researchers and policymakers.