Бакалавриат
2026/2027
Поведенческая макроэкономика
ID 1208133
Статус:
Курс по выбору (Экономика)
Кто читает:
Департамент теоретической экономики
Где читается:
Факультет экономических наук
Когда читается:
3-й курс, 3 модуль
Охват аудитории:
для своего кампуса
Язык:
английский
Кредиты:
3
Контактные часы:
40
Course Syllabus
Abstract
The predominant paradigm in modern macroeconomics treats economic agents as fully rational decision makers with perfect information about the economy, an assumption that extends to how they form expectations. While this assumption is analytically convenient – it guarantees that agents’
expectations are internally consistent with macroeconomic models – it is increasingly at odds with a growing body of evidence documenting systematic departures from the full information rational expectations (FIRE) framework.
This course examines recent advances in the literature on behavioral and informational frictions in macroeconomic settings, with a particular focus on economic expectations. We will review surveybased data sources and the empirical evidence on deviations from the FIRE hypothesis, and study how information imperfections, biases, and other types of constraints on individual behavior shape the expectations formation process. We will also examine the implications of these departures for aggregate macroeconomic outcomes.
Learning Objectives
- Provide students with an overview of survey-based data sources on macroeconomic expectations
- Present empirical approaches used to test deviations from the FIRE hypothesis
- Review empirical evidence on departures from rational expectations formation
- Discuss the sources of informational frictions and theories of boundedly rational behavior
- Examine the methods and results of recent research papers, and draw out their implications for aggregate macroeconomic dynamics
Expected Learning Outcomes
- State assumptions of the FIRE hypothesis
- Identify specific departures from full information
- Identify recent theories of bounded rationality proposed in the literature
- Clearly communicate the main contribution of a research paper to an audience
- Critically evaluate the results of a research paper
- Analyze implications of standard macroeconomic models augmented with boundedly rational expectations
- Distinguish between under- and overreaction in expectations
- Analyze implications of introducing bounded rationality for the design, efficacy and communication of monetary policy
- Retrieve expectations data from the surveys (for example, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Michigan Survey of Consumers) for empirical analysis
- Select an appropriate test to distinguish information frictions from non-rational expectations formation
- Apply empirical tests to detect deviations from the FIRE framework in expectations data
Course Contents
- 1. Introduction to Behavioral Macroeconomics
- 2–3. Empirical Approach
- 4–5. Causal effects of expectations
- 6. Informational frictions
- 7–8. Empirical Evidence
- 9. Adaptive expectations
- 10. Sentiments
- 11. Sentiment shocks
- 12–13. Overreaction to news
- 14. People’s understanding of macroeconomy
- 15–16. Experience effects
- 17. Cognitive limitations
- 18. Monetary policy implications
- 19–20. Student presentations
Assessment Elements
- Presentation of a research paper (individual)The presentation should be around 15–20 minutes long and made in class. The aim is to introduce a paper to the audience by clearly stating a research question of the selected paper, research methods and the main contributions (empirical and/or theoretical)
- Referee report on a research paperIt should critically evaluate the contribution of a selected research paper. It typically has three parts: summarize the main point of the paper; say something positive about the paper by emphasizing its strong aspects and advantages; finally, provide a list of comments regarding the paper’s research question, methodology, results and/or its contribution. It is a good practice to move from major comments to minor problems all the way down to typos.
- QuizzesQuizzes will be given (roughly) bi-weekly and contain questions based on the material covered in previous lectures.
- Final examFinal exam will be given at the end of the module. It will test the material covered in lectures and contain problems to solve.
Interim Assessment
- 2026/2027 3rd module0.1 * Referee report on a research paper + 0.25 * Quizzes + 0.45 * Final exam + 0.2 * Presentation of a research paper (individual)
