2026/2027
Введение в структурированный анализ: подходы и методы
ID 1270907
Статус:
Маго-лего
Где читается:
Институт востоковедения и африканистики
Когда читается:
2, 3 модуль
Охват аудитории:
для всех кампусов НИУ ВШЭ
Преподаватели:
Андреев Сергей Борисович
Язык:
английский
Кредиты:
6
Контактные часы:
48
Course Syllabus
Abstract
This course integrates perspectives from many fields — including Political Science, Cognitive Science, Psychology, Epistemology, Systems Studies, Perception Theory, and Intelligence Analysis — to adopt an interdisciplinary, critical approach to Intelligence Analysis, with a focus on analytical tools, techniques, and methodologies. It promotes critical thinking as well as intellectual independence by introducing a convergent structured methodology that, paradoxically, encourages a divergent approach to analysis.
Beyond academic literature, the course is grounded in 12 years of field experience leading Analysis Centres at UN peacekeeping missions.
The course consists of twelve substantive lectures interspersed with two seminars, followed by a joint seminar-consultation session and three seminars on oral presentation. Students will then participate in five seminar-presentation sessions combined with a wrap-up session dedicated to critical discussions of written assignments and a multiple-choice questions test. During these five presentation sessions, students are expected to engage in Oxford-style peer reviews of each other's work.
Students enrolling in this course are expected to meet the following prerequisites:
• Proficiency in at least one of the programme languages (Arabic, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Turkish, Hindi, Hebrew or Vietnamese) at the B1 level or higher;
• Foundational knowledge of the history of Asian and African countries, including major historical developments, political transformations, and cultural traditions;
• Basic understanding of international relations and key concepts in political science;
• Familiarity with academic research methods and the ability to critically evaluate scholarly sources;
• Ability to read and analyze academic literature in English;
• Strong analytical and critical thinking skills, including the capacity to interpret complex political, historical, and cultural information.
Learning Objectives
- This course introduces students to Intelligence Analysis, where "Intelligence" is defined as processing raw data and information into a viable, feasible, actionable predictive product that identifies potential likelihoods, impacts, and associated risks. Students will familiarise themselves with structured analysis methods that enable analysts to critically mitigate human cogni-tive biases, perception biases, and information gaps. Students will learn to identify and articulate the key components of structured intelligence analysis, including evidence evaluation, hypothesis testing, and critical thinking.
Expected Learning Outcomes
- Students are expected to develop a firm grasp of basic analytical concepts and techniques
- Students will be able to apply structured analytical techniques to real-world intelligence problems and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches
- Students are expected to gain a strong grounding in critical thinking and constructive engagement with cognitive biases
- Students will familiarise themselves with various formats for written and oral presenta-tions of analytical products. They will apply these skills in their assignments to develop the ability to effectively communicate analytical findings to decision-makers and stake-holders
- Students are expected to develop an understanding of future professional career prospects in the field
Course Contents
- Lecture One: Basic Concepts One
- Lecture Two: Basic Concepts Two
- Lecture Three: Getting Started with Analysis
- Lecture Four: Decomposition and Visualisation
- Lecture Five: Scenarios and Indicators
- Lecture Six: Hypothesis Generation and Testing
- Lecture Seven: Assessment of Cause and Effect
- Lecture Eight: Challenge Analysis
- Lecture Nine: Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence Analysis
- Lecture Ten: What Are Intelligence Analytical Failures and Why Do They Happen?
- Lecture Eleven: Conflict Management and Decision Support
- Lecture Twelve: Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques
- Seminar One: Information acquisition (Lunch with the FT)
- Seminar Two: Alternative Hypotheses Generation (Flash in the Sky)
- Seminar Three: Consultation
- Seminar Four: How to make an oral and written analytical presentation
- Seminar Five: Mock oral presentation of a real declassified written analytical product
- Seminar Six: Mock oral presentation of a real declassified written analytical product
- Seminars Seven-Eleven: Students’ presentations of their analytical product
- Seminar Twelve: Wrap-up session
Assessment Elements
- Analytical assignment3,000 words maximum and oral presentation. Written assignments must be submitted by 9:00 p.m. five days prior to the presentation date. A grace period of 60 seconds is permitted; any submission received after this time will not be accepted, and a mark of zero will be awarded.
- “Lunch with the FT” analytical assessment presentation1,500 words maximum and oral presentation. Written assignments must be submitted by 9:00 p.m. five days prior to the presentation date. A grace period of 60 seconds is permitted; any submission received after this time will not be accepted, and a mark of zero will be awarded.
- “Flash in the Sky” analytical assessment presentation1,500 words maximum and oral presentation. Written assignments must be submitted by 9:00 p.m. five days prior to the presentation date. A grace period of 60 seconds is permitted; any submission received after this time will not be accepted, and a mark of zero will be awarded.
- Oral presentation of a ready-made analytical productOral presentation in a chosen format.
- Peer critiqueSubmitted orally. Oxford style peer critique.
- Class participationSubmitted orally.
- Exam: Multiple-choice questions testTaken in class. The multiple-choice test consists of ten questions based on the lecture material, to be completed in 15 minutes.
Interim Assessment
- 2026/2027 3rd module0.1 * Oral presentation of a ready-made analytical product + 0.05 * Class participation + 0.2 * Exam: Multiple-choice questions test + 0.1 * “Flash in the Sky” analytical assessment presentation + 0.15 * Peer critique + 0.3 * Analytical assignment + 0.1 * “Lunch with the FT” analytical assessment presentation
Bibliography
Recommended Core Bibliography
- Критическое мышление: Анализируй, сомневайся, формируй свое мнение - Т.Чатфилд - Альпина Паблишер - 9785961420920 - 2019 - русский - https://hse.alpinadigital.ru/book/18472 - Alpina - 18472
- Системный подход и критическое мышление - Яковлев В. Ю. - Костромской государственный университет - - - 2020 - русский - https://e.lanbook.com/book/176329 - ЛАНЬ - 176329
Recommended Additional Bibliography
- Критическое мышление / искусственный интеллект в цифровом образовании — Москва : Издательство Юрайт, 2026. — 1 с. — (Юрайт.Академия). — ISBN 978-5-534-14536-6. — Текст : электронный // Образовательная платформа Юрайт [сайт]. — URL: https://urait.ru/bcode/600518 (дата обращения: 02.07.2026).
- Системно-критическое мышление - - - Белгородский государственный аграрный университет имени В.Я. Горина - - - 2024 - русский - https://e.lanbook.com/book/455465 - ЛАНЬ - 455465