Contest to Predict 2023 Nobel Prize Winners in Economics
The Faculty of Economic Sciences announces its annual contest to predict the winners of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 2023. Participants can name up to three candidates.
The new laureates of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on October 9. Until that day, you can test your knowledge of the current state of economic sciences and see how close your guesses are to the jury's verdict. Participants should specify the names of their favourites in the form before October 9, 12:45 pm Moscow time (you can name between one and three economists). You can only vote once. The results will be announced on October 10.
Fortune doesn’t always favour the contest participants. In 2021, two contestants managed to predict the exact list of awardees of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel: David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens. In 2022, however, none of the contestants guessed all three (or even two of the three) winners. Last year, three economists—Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig—received the Prize in Economic Sciences.
If you want to increase your chances of success, you can watch a webinar where the two winners of 2021 contest talk about whether their favourites have changed over the years, as well as the role of luck in making correct predictions, where to find a list of potential laureates, whether it is worth focusing on the Hirsch index, what kind of research generally wins the Nobel Prize, and what benefit it has for science (the recording is available here).
However, one clue for the 2023 Nobel Prize is available right now. The analytical company Clarivate, which owns the Web of Science, has published a list of scientists who may receive the Nobel Prize in various sciences, including the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.
The forecast is based on citation data that reflects the impact of scientists' work in the relevant fields. According to Clarivate, the winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2023 may be Edward L. Glaeser (for insight in urban economics), Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman (for research on the causes and consequences of income inequality) and Raj Chetty (for understanding the determinants of economic opportunity and defining policies aimed at improving social mobility). The company notes that these lists are not predictions. However, Clarivate boasts that since the creation of the Citation Laureates rating in 2002, its analysts have identified 71 outstanding scientists and economists who have become Nobel Laureates.
The contest is named after NES Professor Andrey Bremzen, a talented populariser of economic sciences and organiser of intellectual competitions.