Technological Trends and Working with the Future

2026/2027

Учебный год

ENG

Обучение ведется на английском языке

3

Кредиты

Кто читает:

Школа инноватики и предпринимательства (Учебные подразделения)

Статус:

Курс обязательный

Когда читается:

1-й курс, 1 модуль

Преподаватель

Головин Тимофей Юрьевич

Course Syllabus

Abstract

Technological Trends and Futures Work is an applied course in futures thinking, trendwatching, technology horizon scanning, forecasting, and strategic foresight. Students learn to distinguish observations, weak signals, hype, and trends; assess the evidence, maturity, and potential impact of emerging technologies; and turn trend analysis into scenarios and strategic choices. The course examines not only, but in major – technological trends: digital, physical, industrial, biological, energy, and converging technology trajectories without treating any single trend list as definitive. A concise comparative policy lens introduces Russia's National Technology Initiative (NTI) and technological sovereignty alongside UN, OECD, and EU approaches to strategic foresight, anticipatory governance, resilience, and strategic autonomy. The practical part of the course culminates in a collaborative foresight exercise. Student teams construct a future map for a selected market, organisation, or technology domain; identify stakeholders, threats, and opportunities; describe an extended and a desired future; and use backcasting to propose an actionable project portfolio. The course develops critical thinking, evidence-based reasoning, systems thinking, and the ability to make robust decisions under uncertainty and to think from the future to the present as an approach in launching their own startup

Learning Objectives

• Develop a coherent understanding of futures thinking, thinking from the future to the present, trendwatching, technology forecasting, scenario work, and strategic foresight
• Build practical skills for identifying, formulating, validating, and prioritising trends and technological trends and weak signals. Build startups ideas based on the future map
• Examine the development, convergence, application potential, risks, and governance of major emerging technology categories
• Learn to use foresight maps, desired-future statements, and backcasting to formulate strategies and innovation projects
• Learn to use foresight maps, desired-future statements, and backcasting to formulate strategies and innovation projects
• Strengthen critical, systemic, and collaborative reasoning for decisions in fast-changing technological environments

Expected Learning Outcomes

• Master team facilitation and presentation techniques for futures-oriented projects.
• Master using future works for identifying opportunities for startups.
• Master trendwatching, scenario, foresight-mapping, and backcasting practices.
• Master systems-thinking tools for exploring interactions between technologies, markets, institutions, and society.
• Master critical analysis and synthesis of evidence about technological change.
• Be able to identify weak signals, distinguish trends from hype, and formulate measurable trend statements.
• Be able to validate and prioritise trends using multiple sources and explicit evidence.
• Be able to assess the maturity, adoption conditions, opportunities, risks, and societal implications of emerging technologies.
• Be able to develop multiple plausible scenarios rather than a single-point prediction.
• Be able to construct a foresight map and derive strategic options and innovation projects through backcasting.
• Be able to work in interdisciplinary teams and communicate evidence-based futures arguments.
• Know the core concepts of futures thinking, uncertainty, trends, forecasts, scenarios, foresight, and backcasting.
• Know major digital, industrial, biomed, energy, new materials, and space technology trajectories and their convergence.
• Know the purpose and architecture of NTI and the concept of technological sovereignty.
• Know selected UN, OECD, EU, and international technology-foresight approaches.
• Know the principles, roles, and outputs of a collaborative foresight process.

Course Contents

• Module 1. Futures, Uncertainty, and Trend Fundamentals
• Module 2. Trendwatching, Forecasts, and Scenarios
• Module 3. Digital Intelligence and Trusted Infrastructure
• Module 4. Intelligent Physical Systems and Industrial Transformation
• Module 5. Bio-, Energy-, and Converging Technologies
• Module 6. Strategic Foresight and the Future Map
• Module 7. Desired Futures, Backcasting, and Project Portfolios

Assessment Elements

• Participation
  Student participation during seminars and workshops is assessed cumulatively
• Group Assignment
  A team selects an industrial and regional market and on each module apply knowledge on a chosen market. The final result is presented by the group, and the mark is given to the whole group. The final presentation should include: 1) Market description and justification of the choice 2) Main non-technological trends 3) Min technological trends 4) Forecast of the future 5) Desired future 6) Foresight future map 7) Identified startup opportunities on future map with backcasting Team size could be 10-15 participants. Each participant will have to show what exactly they have done within the group work.
• Test
  A test covering the concepts, methods, technology families, and cases discussed in the course.

Interim Assessment

• 2026/2027 1st module
  0.5 * Group Assignment + 0.3 * Test + 0.2 * Participation

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• Неизбежно : 12 технологических трендов, которые определяют наше будущее, Келли, К., 2017
• Неизбежно : 12 технологических трендов, которые определяют наше будущее, Келли, К., 2021

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Форсайт. Теория. Методология. Опыт : моногр., Гапоненко, Н. В., 2008

Authors

• Tsymbal Andrei Aleksandrovich