2019/2020

Прикладная международная экономика - анализ современных проблем

Лучший по критерию «Полезность курса для Вашей будущей карьеры»

Лучший по критерию «Полезность курса для расширения кругозора и разностороннего развития»

Лучший по критерию «Новизна полученных знаний»

Статус: Общеуниверситетский факультатив

Кто читает: Департамент теоретической экономики

Когда читается: 3, 4 модуль

Преподаватели: Гилман Мартин Грант

Язык: английский

Кредиты: 1

Контактные часы: 16

Course Syllabus

Abstract

Can the cure be worse than the disease itself? The radical economic policies pursued by most of the world’s advanced economies in recent years are an experiment in which we are all participating. Ironically, it could be that Russia is one of the few major economies still implementing a relatively classic policy approach. The central question addressed in the course is how to explain the fragility of the global economy some 11 years after the beginning of the great recession and what have we learned about macroeconomic policy. We will try to determine whether the global economy is experiencing a bubble of historic proportions, an astute exercise in financial repression or something else. The mini-series of classes will explore the above question over six consecutive Mondays from 20 January-24 February 2020. The class will be convened by Prof. Martin Gilman and active student participation is expected. The classes and readings are in English. The precise timing and room of the class at Myasnitskaya will be announced later. Required and optional reading will be posted on the class webpage well in advance.

Learning Objectives

• to present a challenge to HSE students interested in studying economic issues as to how to apply their theoretical training to one of the most difficult, practical set of issues facing the economics profession today

Expected Learning Outcomes

• develop analytical skills in applying theory to empirical aspects of the economic issues in the current international economy

Course Contents

• Systemic issues
  • International monetary system – more than 7 decades after Bretton Woods • Revisiting the Triffin trilemma • Advanced and emerging market economies • Fear of secular stagnation • The limitations of traditional macroeconomic policy • Financial repression – a historical overview
• Crisis prevention
  • What happened in 2007-8? What did we do? • The elusive goal of financial stability, masking real instability • Unintended consequences • Balance sheet risks in the global economy • Financial mania and panics – Minsky et al • Is the debt bubble sustainable?
• Evolution of economic relations
  11 years after the beginning of the Great Recession • The age of central bankers • What are US markets for short-term funds signaling? • What models to use? • Global economic coordination – China • Sanctions and economic weapons
• Growth dilemma
  • A historical and international perspective • Real and nominal values: example of the determinants of GDP growth • The productivity paradox – a worldwide phenomenon • Growing inequality and the political economy dimension • The problem with debt – is a debt jubilee possible? • De-globalization as a reversion to the mean
• Crisis Resolution
  • Savings dilemma • QEs and helicopter money • Modern Monetary Theory • NIRP, the Japanese experience and Sweden, Switzerland, etc. • Public pensions, private retirement accounts, insurance • Underfunded liabilities and fiscal unsustainability
• The future of international finance
  • Correlation between markets • Changing trade relations • International capital flows and exchange rate regimes • Economic globalization is hard to reverse • Globalization and the rise of economic nationalism in many countries • The changing role of shadow banking • FinTech, cryto-currencies and alternative assets • Policy dilemmas • What next?

Assessment Elements

• Attendance
• Research paper
  To be eligible, please submit your research proposal no later than the second meeting of the class on 27 January. For credit, the first draft of papers should be submitted by the time of the last meeting of the class on February 24, and final drafts by 6 March 2020. And for those students who might later request a letter of recommendation in the context of applying to a foreign graduate school, a good paper is required.

Interim Assessment

• Interim assessment (4 module)
  0.5 * Attendance + 0.5 * Research paper

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

• Peter Skott, & Hyman P. Minsky. (1992). The Financial Instability Hypothesis by. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.5947F726
• Reinhart, C. M. . (DE-588)128390883, (DE-576)167340395. (2009). This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly / Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff. Princeton, N.J. [u.a.]: Princeton Univ. Press. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edswao&AN=edswao.310946565
• William R. White. (2012). Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences *. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.77F5AE54

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Ben S. Bernanke. (2012). The Great Moderation. Book Chapters. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.h.hoo.bookch.4.6
• Reinhart, C., Kirkegaard, J., & Sbrancia, B. (2011). Financial repression redux. MPRA Paper. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.p.pra.mprapa.31641
• Robert J. GORDON. (2015). Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: U.S. Producivity Growth in the Long Run. Communications & Strategies, (100), 19. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.idt.journl.cs10001