Бакалавриат
2021/2022
Остаточные риски и глобальная экономическая политика
Лучший по критерию «Полезность курса для расширения кругозора и разностороннего развития»
Статус:
Курс по выбору (Экономика)
Направление:
38.03.01. Экономика
Кто читает:
Департамент теоретической экономики
Где читается:
Факультет экономических наук
Когда читается:
4-й курс, 2 модуль
Формат изучения:
без онлайн-курса
Охват аудитории:
для всех кампусов НИУ ВШЭ
Преподаватели:
Гилман Мартин Грант
Язык:
английский
Кредиты:
3
Контактные часы:
16
Course Syllabus
Abstract
This mini-course will analyze whether the major OECD countries, advised by the IMF and the BIS, are stumbling into a period of financial dislocation, or worse. The unwillingness and/or inability of the major economic powers to confront the imbalances that led to the financial crisis of 2007-8 may have in fact made such a scenario more likely, especially in the wake of the debt build-up since at least the time of the pandemic of 2021/2. Numerous indicators show that macro imbalances are at a tipping point. For instance, public debt in the US risks going parabolic at well over 100% of GDP, with interest costs now higher than defense spending. The economic tail risks of inflation and/or recession, are now compounded by unknowable policy uncertainty in the form of the arrival of Mr. Trump to the US presidency one year ago.
Learning Objectives
- to develop your own assessment of whether the global economy is experiencing a bubble of historic proportions or is striving to make sense of a changing balance of economic power in a fast-changing world. It may come as some relief to know that nobody seems to know the answer to these questions, even those responsible for economic policy in major countries
- to appreciate how these developments may be relevant to your own career and future prospects
Expected Learning Outcomes
- develop analytical skills in applying theory to empirical aspects of the economic issues in the current international economy
- recognition that there may be no correct answers on an a priori basis to many of the critical questions about growth, employment and inflation
Course Contents
- 28 October 2021
- 11 November 2021
- 18 November 2021
- 25 November 2021
- 2 December 2021
- 16 December 2021
Bibliography
Recommended Core Bibliography
- C. Goodhart. The numbers game. The Spectator, October 2021. https://main-spectatorus-spectatorus.content.pugpig.com/2021/10/11/the-numbers-game/content.html
- George A. Akerlof. What They Were Thinking Then: The Consequences for Macroeconomics during the Past 60 Years. URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.4.171
- Peter Skott, & Hyman P. Minsky. (1992). The Financial Instability Hypothesis by. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.5947F726
- Reinhart, C. M. . (DE-588)128390883, (DE-576)167340395. (2009). This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly / Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff. Princeton, N.J. [u.a.]: Princeton Univ. Press. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edswao&AN=edswao.310946565
- William R. White. (2012). Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences *. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.77F5AE54
- Менг, Т. В. Исследование образовательной среды: проблемы, подходы, модели : монография / Т. В. Менг. — Санкт-Петербург : РГПУ им. А. И. Герцена, 2011. — 98 с. — ISBN 978-5-8064-1616-3. — Текст : электронный // Лань : электронно-библиотечная система. — URL: https://e.lanbook.com/book/5588 (дата обращения: 00.00.0000). — Режим доступа: для авториз. пользователей.
Recommended Additional Bibliography
- «Central Banks Keep Shooting Themselves in the Foot». The interview with William White. https://themarket.ch/interview/william-white-central-banks-keep-shooting-themselves-in-the-foot-ld.3053
- Ben S. Bernanke. (2012). The Great Moderation. Book Chapters. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.h.hoo.bookch.4.6
- Reinhart, C., Kirkegaard, J., & Sbrancia, B. (2011). Financial repression redux. MPRA Paper. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.p.pra.mprapa.31641
- Robert J. GORDON. (2015). Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: U.S. Producivity Growth in the Long Run. Communications & Strategies, (100), 19. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.a.idt.journl.cs10001