Бакалавриат 2022/2023

Остаточные риски и глобальная экономическая политика

Статус: Курс по выбору (Экономика)

Направление: 38.03.01. Экономика

Кто читает: Департамент теоретической экономики

Где читается: Факультет экономических наук

Когда читается: 3-й курс, 2 модуль

Формат изучения: без онлайн-курса

Охват аудитории: для всех кампусов НИУ ВШЭ

Преподаватели: Гилман Мартин Грант

Язык: английский

Кредиты: 3

Контактные часы: 14

Course Syllabus

Abstract

This mini-course will analyze whether the major OECD countries, advised by the IMF and the BIS, are stumbling into a period of financial dislocation, or worse. The unwillingness and/or inability of the major economic powers to confront the imbalances that led to the financial crisis of 2007-8 may have in fact made such a scenario more likely, especially in the wake of the debt build-up since at least the time of the pandemic of 2021/2. Numerous indicators show that macro imbalances are at a tipping point. For instance, public debt in the US risks going parabolic at well over 100% of GDP, with interest costs now higher than defense spending. The economic tail risks of inflation and/or recession, are now compounded by unknowable policy uncertainty in the form of the arrival of Mr. Trump to the US presidency one year ago.