‘Foresight-Russia’, issue 1, 2013
The latest issue of the ‘Foresight-Russia’ journal is out.
The issue starts with a paper by Ozcan Saritas, Research Professor, ISSEK, and Senior Research Fellow at the University of Manchester (UK). In it he considers emerging technologies aimed at enhancing human physical and mental capacities, addresses related ethical issues and risks, and discusses some wild cards that may cause surprises and shocks in the future.
The next paper, prepared by a team of authors involving Alexander Chulok, Headof the ISSEK Division for S&T Foresight, partly overlaps with the topics raised by O. Saritas. They describe basic trends and S&T areas that will shape the medium and long term prospects of medicine, as well as backlogs, which could allow Russia to gain strong global market positions. They identify possible technological solutions to the most significant healthcare challenges for Russia, and propose a priority research agenda.
In this issue Mikhail Gershman, Senior Research Fellow, ISSEK, presents the first results of monitoring of STI activities undertaken by state-owned companies on implementing innovative development programmes. He evaluates the interim results of government initiatives to foster innovation in the related business segment, notes the negative effects of excessive ‘compulsion’ to innovate and provides recommendations for improving policy.
Software market specifics in the context of open source software distribution are addressed in a paper, by Marina Doroshenko, Head of the ISSEK Department for Analytical Research. She compares direct and indirect public policies fostering the use of open software.
Many researchers believe that the recent global crisis is evidence of the imminent start of a new long-term economic cycle — the sixth Kondratieff wave. Increasing diffusion and convergence of ICT, bio- and nanotechnologies, movements favouring ‘green’ technologies and business models and holistic health, among others, are typically viewed as drivers of the new wave. However only a few experts (including the author of the next paper, Austrian futurist John Casti) point out possible extreme events of natural and social origin, which may impede the implementation of rosy scenarios. Casti proposes some approaches to anticipating such events, that, provided adequate preparedness, could allow the prevention or at least diminution of their devastating impact.
Finally, José Luis Cordeiro, expert in Energyat the Singularity University in Silicon Valley (California, USA) introduces a curious but at the same time highly speculative concept of ‘energy singularity’. This approach presupposes that we will find the ultimate solution to the problem of scarce energy sources, as humanity gains full control over all the energy available on Earth, and later – beyond.
A new article by Kirill Zhirkov, a Research Fellow with the HSE Laboratory for Comparative Social Research, was published recently online in the international peer-reviewed journal Conflict Management and Peace Science.
In the article the scientists compare accounts on the trajectory of innovation in Russia and the USA.
The Social Science Research Network (SSRN) publishes a monthly ranking of research centers and universities in the social and economic sciences. According to the results of the first quarter of 2013, the HSE ranks first for the number of registered authors publishing their papers on the SSRN site. Over the year, their number has more than doubled: from 117 to 272.
Deals on government commissions, the anti-corruption declaration, job creators and job destroyers, trust, talent and institutions, the economy of Runet, the Russian internet; the most curious and useful research for economic policy carried out by HSE over the last year.