All-Moscow seminar "Mathematical methods of decision analysis in economics, finance and politics"
On Wednesday, September 16, the National Research University Higher School of Economics hosted a regular meeting of the All-Moscow seminar "Mathematical methods for analysing optimal solutions in economics, business and politics".
Topic: Analysis of the pandemic and the assessment of the effectiveness of quarantine measures in the largest countries in the world
Speakers: F.T. Aleskerov, S.S. Demin, A.L. Myachin, V.I. Yakuba (HSE, ICS RAS)
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Aleskerov Fuad Tagievich
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Podinovsky Vladislav Vladimirovich
Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Mirkin Boris Grigorievich
In 2020, the whole world encountered with the coronavirus. In the majority of countries the quarantine measures were introduced in order to reduce the number of cases. However, the severity of the restrictive measures varied from country to country. In addition, national characteristics affected how conscientiously these restrictions were implemented. The model for aggregating the level of quarantine measures according to 8 different criteria, such as the cancellation of public events, travel restrictions, etc., is presented. There is model and a time series analysis of coronavirus cases. On the basis of classical methods of cluster analysis (k-means, hierarchical clustering and DBSCAN) and methods of pattern analysis, groups of countries with a similar internal structure were identified in terms of a set of three indicators: education level, quarantine measures taken and citizens' compliance with the law (expert assessments). In the obtained groups regression models were built. It allowed in the short term to calculate the increase in the number of cases of COVID-19. Also, it was possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the application of quarantine measures in the largest countries in the world, using new methods of Interval DEA.