• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site
  • HSE University
  • News
  • ‘In 20 years time, people who cope in an atmosphere of uncertainty will be the most successful’

‘In 20 years time, people who cope in an atmosphere of uncertainty will be the most successful’

We cannot predict the future but we can simulate it.  At the University Open to the City: HSE in Gorky Park project, Deputy Director of the Foresight Centre at the Institute of Statistical Studies and Economics of  Knowledge (ISSEK) at HSE, Alexander Chulok talked about what we can expect in the next 20 years and how to prepare for it.

At the beginning of his lecture Alexander Chulok asked the audience whether it is possible to predict the future. The answers were varied, but the position which set the tone for the lecture was that we cannot foresee the future or predict it accurately but we can simulate it and imagine various scenarios. This is what the foresight researchers do at HSE, with an arsenal of methods for modelling different variations of what might happen. It is particularly relevant, when the constant innovation in technology is bringing major changes - to the transformation of businesses and established chains to create added value.  

The change in economic models, mass information technology, development and penetration of social and other networks in the daily lives of millions of people - everyone has to take these trends into account, how does he decide where to invest money or which desirable profession should he choose. The winners (people and countries) are those who are quickest to introduce the newest technology. This means the race for intellectual resources intensifies, in the rush to enter the new economics. The consequences could even lead to changes in the geopolitical situation.    

In medicine - a new model for healthcare

Around the world, medicine is moving towards more individualised treatments, disease prevention and human enhancement which implies using a whole new class of technology, bio-compatible implants, the brain-computer interfaces, genome editing, continuous monitoring applications instead of medical check-ups etc. This opens up essentially new possibilities for humans and presents doctors, society and all of us with new dilemmas. 

Imagine a society without newspapers where people buy what their fridges tell them they’re running out of

Associate Professor Chulok says medical markets are experiencing cardinal changes. If we just take pharmaceuticals, there are some very active new players introducing ICT developments. This will probably lead to new healthcare models with prevention rather than treatment at the centre. Today the market in mobile health (m-Health) - gadgets which continuously monitor a person’s health is valued at 26 billion dollars. In a recent ISSEK trend letter, the application of augmented reality technology to improve the effectiveness of complex surgical operations were noted as one of the fastest growing trends.

Information and Communications Technology

Academics have been talking about ICT in all spheres of the economy and life for decades but today we are witnessing a genuine revolution. The introduction of smart technology to practically all areas of activity - from farming to industry (there are already enterprises which are run without people) - creates huge opportunities for growth in production and opening new businesses and markets.

Several films have shown us the changes ICT will make to our lives in 20 years from now, Transcendence for example, because serious players in this market use cinema to throw up images of technology and gadgets of the future.

Besides economic changes, technology will bring about changes in the social sphere, in our habits and models of everyday consumer behaviour. Imagine a society without newspapers, where people buy what their fridges tell them they’re running out of.

Nanotechnology, energy and transport of the future

Researchers tell us that in 10-15 years we will have table-sized nanofactories able to produce almost any product out of materials to hand in a matter of hours. Molecular self-assembly will become a serious challenge to existing advanced technologies like 3D printing, according to Alexander Chulok.

Big data designers, genetic engineers and specialists in 3D printing will be the experts most in demand, say foresight researchers

Alexander Chulok described the energy supplies of the future as autonomous, ecological, and adaptable to the needs of consumers. Energy and transport systems will intellectualise themselves. Humans will live and work in intelligent places, travel in smart cars, order purchases, (pizza, flowers, presents) using commercial drones. The net profits in 2014 of world market leader in commercial drones, Chinese company DJI technology were 120 million dollars.

The professions worth training for

Global changes are reflected in education with obsolete areas of work disappearing and new kinds of specialists in demand. Some skills are no longer needed. What would a medical worker do in a system where special devices monitor health. The specialists who will be most in demand according to foresight researchers are designers, specialists in Big Data, 3D printing and genetic engineers. In terms of psychological preparation, the most successful people will be those who can cope with working in an atmosphere of uncertainty.   

All these changes are of a global nature. They affect all countries, and Russians have the opportunity to be creators of groundbreaking technology but not its consumers. The country has a dual goal. We need to determine which are the areas where we can compete with researchers in other countries (mathematics, physics, Earth sciences, nanotechnology, atomic energy) and where do we need to introduce the best accessible technology, primarily it’s in transport, medicine and energy supplies.

At the end of his lecture Alexander Chulok invited the audience to draw an individual map of development for themselves in the next 10 years. He believes that it’s the best way to begin with yourself and start to make changes in your life right away.

See also:

‘An STI-Accelerated and Informed Future is Possible’

The Twelfth International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policy’ is kicking off at HSE University on November 22. Alexander Sokolov, chair of the organising committee, talked to the HSE News Service about the evolution of the foresight agenda. Two of the conference speakers, Ibon Zugasti from Spain and Mlungisi Cele from South Africa, shared some highlights of their research.

UNESCO Chair on Future Studies Opens at HSE University

In 2022, a HSE University department joined the ranks of UNESCO Futures Literacy Chairs. This builds on the work of the ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Centre, and the activity of the Human Capital Multidisciplinary Research Centre. Professor Alexander Sokolov, head of the new department, Director of the International Research and Educational Foresight Centre, and Deputy Director of HSE ISSEK, spoke about the establishment, aims and objectives of the UNESCO Chair on Future Studies.

‘I Can’t Think of a Better Time for Young Researchers to Work in Foresight’

Foresight and STI Policy are among the symposium topics of the XXIII Yasin International Academic Conference. How has foresight developed in Canada? How did academic life change during the pandemic? What can early-career foresight researchers expect? The HSE News Service discussed these questions with Jonathan Calof, one of the symposium’s speakers.

HSE University Shapes Global Chain of Foresight

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated our swift adaptation to big challenges and strengthened cooperation ties between researchers, politicians, and entrepreneurs on national and global levels. The accumulated life and goal setting practices in the new reality will be discussed on October 15–26, 2021 by participants of the XI International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and Science, Technology and Innovation Policy’ organised by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK).

HSE University Expands Cooperation with the World's Leading Foresight Centres

HSE University has signed cooperation agreements with two of the world's leading research centres, NISTEP (Japan) and TIFAC (India), which provide their governments with analytical support to inform science and technology forecasting and science and technology policy.

From Science Fiction to Designing the Future: Annual Foresight Conference Commences at HSE University

This week, researchers from all over the world have gathered online for the 10th annual International Academic Conference ‘Foresight and STI Policy’ at HSE University. One of the cross-cutting themes of the anniversary forum, which will be held from November 9 to 13, is lessons learned from the pandemic and the crisis’s effects in future scenarios.

Managers’ Role in an Era of Wild Cards: Seeing Opportunities Even at Rock Bottom

Global economic trends that have emerged in 2020 have been reevaluated in the context of the pandemic and low oil prices. Businesses have reconsidered their windows of opportunity and potential threats. This is evidenced by a foresight study conducted by the Association of Managers of Russia and co-authored by Alexander Chulok, Director of the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge.

'I Hope That I Will Be Able to Travel to Moscow to Be with My HSE Colleagues and Friends Soon'

Jonathan Calof has been cooperating with HSE since 2009. In an interview with HSE News Service he talks about how his involvement with HSE began, what projects he has been part of, and how he has organized his online work during the recent lockdown.

HSE ISSEK Researchers Sign Cooperation Agreement with Korean Colleagues

This May, HSE and the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI, Republic of Korea) signed a cooperation agreement on science and advanced technology research. This agreement was signed by Leonid Gokhberg, HSE First Vice Rector, Director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, and Dr. Hwang-Hee Cho, STEPI President.

Building a Career Dedicated to Foresight and STI Policy Research

Following years of study and work in South America and Europe, Rafael Popper joined HSE Moscow as Professor of Foresight and STI Governance in January 2018. In addition to his job at HSE, he is Principal Scientist in Business, Innovation and Foresight at a world leading research and technology organization (RTO) called VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. With a PhD on 21st Century Foresight from the University of Manchester, Popper has built a career on wide-ranging research of issues in foresight and STI policy. In a recent interview with the HSE News Service, he spoke in depth about his research interests, philosophy on teaching, collaboration across HSE and his love of languages, among other topics.