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Regular version of the site

Uncertainty in the Global Economy

On October 9th, a seminar on the state of the global and monetary economy took place at the Higher School of Economics. Evgeniy Yasin shared his thoughts on this topic.

‘The organization of such a seminar was prompted by the uncertainty of sustainable growth, and the lack of confidence in the global economy future which has emerged since the 2008-2009 crisis.

‘In this regard I would like to make several comments.

‘First, we have become an integral part of the global economy, well integrated.

‘Second, we are used to fully or partly experiencing the same successes as we have sees in the largest global regions. At the very least, the ‘fat years’ of 2004-2007 allowed us to share the success of other countries, including those in Europe and Asia.

‘Third, when the world faced the crisis events of 2008-2009, many people in Russia had a feeling that we had met this fate before. The newspapers, TV and radio were repeating: “Look, the recession here is worse than in other countries!” But almost no one remembers noq that we had been overheated even before the crisis so that 2hen it we were able to use our currency reserves, and the losses turned out to be not so great. Still, the growth rates have fallen as compared with the ‘fat years’.

‘Everyone wants to hear that the crisis is past, and we shall grow again at 7% a year. Unfortunately, the forecasts are not so rosy.

‘OECD data as of June 2012 shows that in their estimation, the global economy will grow by about 3.3% annually up to 2030. That includes the USA by about 2.3%, the Euro zone  by 1.5-1.7%, China from 8.9 to 6.6%, India 6.7% on average, and Russia by 3% annually, which means it will be between the developed and developing countries, with a rather decreasing trend (3.6% in 2012-2017; 2.7% in 2018-2030).

‘Calculations by an economic expert team headed by Evsey Gurvich largely confirm these forecasts, as well as my previous evaluations, which say that at today’s production growth rate, we won’t be able to achieve economy growth rates higher than 4% annually. The opportunities to retain our position by means of oil and gas production are becoming less and less reliable, especially when taking into account the prospect of the growing production of synthetic gas and oil.

‘That’s why our everyday worries regarding rouble and other currency exchange rates, deposit interests, credits and price for Russian and other companies’ stocks, should attract less attention.

Do we have other opportunities? I think that we do. But they are not only in the sphere of technology and investment. They lay in the areas which are somewhat unusual for us, such as trust, law and competition.’

Source: http://echo.msk.ru/blog/yasin/940363-echo/

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