The HSE experts on gas tensions with Ukraine and other associated issues
Ukraine lurched nearer towards an economic precipice on Thursday after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off gas to the country for the second time this year over unpaid bills.
A cut off would likely lead to an economic catastrophe in the country, potentially pulling Eastern Europe, the European Union and Russia into a death spiral of financial defaults.
"It could be similar to January," said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, the HSE professor and chief economist at Troika Dialog group. "But this time there will be more pressure on Ukraine."
Despite Ukraine's ailing economy, which is expected to shrink 10 per cent this year, Kiev still has the ability to pay but the political turmoil that is engulfing the country might prevent a solution.
"They have the money but don't have a consensus," said Gavrilenkov.
"It is not an economic issue; it is 99 per cent political."
Europe and Russia fear that Ukraine's problems may result in a default, undermining confidence in the region. Past crises have spread throughout emerging economies, most recently the Asian crisis in 1997, which contributed to the default in Russia the following year.
However, there are marked differences between the economic situations of the countries and the central banks of Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia sought to emphasize that with a joint statement on Wednesday.
Hungary has been one of the worst-affected countries due to the high number of loans denominated in foreign currency. The forint fell 1.25 per cent on Wednesday to an all-time low against the euro.
"Much of the lending to the household sector in Hungary was financed in euros and Swiss francs," said Martin Gilman, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and a former IMF representative in Russia. "With the drop in the Hungarian currency that makes much of the Hungarian economy insolvent."
"The creditors of these countries need to know that there is going to be a solution even if it involves restructuring a considerable amount of debt," said Gilman. "Nobody, whether the IMF or EU, is going to bailout a country like Hungary or Latvia."
While the focus has largely been on the relationship between the EU and its newest and potential members, a crash in Eastern Europe is likely to have significant knock-on effects for Russia.
From The Moscow News
From February 25 to March 2, HSE’s Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs hosted an academic module of the University Consortium, an inter-regional training programme for outstanding students that aims to promote mutual understanding, balanced analysis, and genuine dialogue among the US, EU, and Russia.
Students of Parallel Degree Programme in International Relations Perform Significantly Higher than International Average on University of London Exams
The number of HSE students who successfully passed the exams conducted at the University of London in 2018 was significantly higher than the average for other universities participating in the international programme there. HSE received the status of Recognized Teaching Centre.
This month, Dr. Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Professor Emeritus at Bowling Green State University in Ohio and California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, delivered at open lecture at HSE Moscow entitled ‘Fake News and Propaganda’. An expert in international media, war and propaganda, and media political economy, Dr. Boyd-Barrett is the author of a number of books, including ‘Western Mainstream Media and the Ukraine Crisis: A Study in Conflict Propaganda’ (2016) and ‘Media Imperialism’ (2014). Following his lecture, he spoke with the HSE News Service about the topic of fake news more broadly and about how people can protect themselves from it.
Linda Moessler is a German student who spent her spring semester studying international relations at HSE Moscow. Despite political tensions and cultural differences, Linda managed to fit in greatly and enjoy her stay in Russia. Miss Moessler agreed to tell us about her experience as a foreign student at HSE. Her tale will surely be of great interest for those curious about how international students live in Russia.
Alexander Bespalov, a first-year student in the HSE and University of London Parallel Degree Programme in International Relations, was born in Israel to parents who had emigrated from Russia. He recently sat down with the HSE News Service to talk about why he chose to come to Russia for study, the challenges he has overcome, and what he is looking to achieve during his time at HSE.
On July 3-10, the IV International Russian-Chinese Summer School on International Relations, ‘Space and Time in the Eurasian Era,’ took place in Moscow. The event was organized by the HSE and East China Normal University. A total of 15 Russian and 12 Chinese students are taking part in the summer school. The summer school, whose working language is English, is intended for undergraduate and graduate students from Russia and China that are interested in international relations.
Vera Danilina, Senior Lecturer in the Department of World Economy (Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs), spoke recently about her experience as a participant in the Fast Track programme at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE, Aix-Marseille University) in France.
Dr. Marek Dabrowski, CASE Fellow at the CASE — Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw, Poland, has participated in every HSE April Conference since 2001, missing just the 2000 inaugural event. A professor with decades of experience in the field of economics, Dr. Dabrowski’s current areas of expertise range from monetary and fiscal policies and political economies in transition to perspectives on European integration and European Neighborhood Policy. In advance of next week’s XV HSE April Conference, Dr. Dabrowski kindly took part in a brief interview with the HSE News Service.
On February 4, 2014, Princess Anne, Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, who is leading the UK delegation to the Sochi Olympics, visited the Higher School of Economics International College of Economics and Finance.